The Learn About Futures Insider: RBOB Gasoline (Part 3)

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Key terms for this market include:

Crack Spread – a term for the price difference between oil and its components. The refinery “cracks” crude into other petroleum products. A crack spread in the futures market can involve the simultaneous purchase and sale of oil and derivatives contracts.

New York Harbor – home to a delivery place for petroleum products from refineries. Terminals here are the major trading center for the East Coast of the United States.
Key Uses

The obvious end use for RBOB is as a motor fuel. Developed Western nations account for the bulk of gasoline consumption and regional daily consumption in 2005 was as follows:

***data courtesy of EIA
Key Concerns

As with crude oil, weekly statistics released by the EIA and API can bring a fair amount of price volatility to RBOB markets. In addition to the weekly reports, the following items can also bring price fluctuations and are events and information worth noting:

Supply and Demand – The level of gasoline supply relative to overall demand can fluctuate and affect prices. Possible seasonal demand and competition on a retail level can also exert pressure on supplies and affect price even if crude oil prices are stable. Any event which threatens the supply or refining output such as weather disruptions, refinery maintenance, or pipeline issues may affect prices.

Crude Oil Supply and Demand – Since gasoline prices have anywhere from 40 to 60 percent of their value derived from crude oil prices, any changes in crude oil supply and price may have a direct impact on the cost of gasoline.

Refining and Imports – These numbers give an indication of the stocks of gasoline and relative to the overall consumption, changes in crude oil supply and refining and imports of refined gasoline are of great interest.

Environmental Issues – Just as environmental protection programs have changed the constituents of gasoline, they may also impact price. On a retail level, California’s fuel regulations are normally cited as a cause of their higher pump prices. Changes in legislation or requirements for additional ethanol blending as well as the source of ethanol additives are all worthy of attention.

Part 1: The Learn About Futures Insider: RBOB Gasoline (Part 1)


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