The Learn About Futures Insider for September 1, 2011: Orange Juice (Part 2)

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Price highlights for this market include:

* A Florida freeze in January of 1977 led to a price spike in the OJ market from less than 80 cents to around $1.40. Prices had previously been brought low by the emergence and competition of ready-to-serve OJ.
* Prices dropped back towards 80 cents through the start of 1980 only to spike each time there was a freeze in Florida.
* By 1989, most orange groves had been moved further south so that the freeze impact was less severe each time. Through the start of the 1990s, an increase in Florida orange production and Brazilian tree inventories pressured orange juice prices back down below 80 cents.
* A keen real estate market, citrus diseases like canker and greening, and a series of hurricanes hit Florida's orange production, reducing the surplus. In the late 1990s and into 2007, production was trimmed by more than 40 percent to 129 million boxes. This boosted prices to fresh highs above $2.00.
* Prices sagged after that high, dropping back down below 70 cents at the start of 2009.
* Weather issues including Atlantic storms and freezes helped move prices back above $2.00 in 2011.

Key terms for the orange juice market include:

Grade A juice – a grading for frozen concentrated orange juice based on United States orange juice standards. Grade A juice has specific color, flavor, and appearance qualities that are scored. It will have a total minimum score of 90, and it must also reconstitute properly.

Brix value – A Degree Brix is a representation of the percentage of sugar content in a liquid, like juice.

Key Uses

While orange juice has an obvious end use, the by-products of orange groves and the production of orange juice are worth noting. Orange oil from pressed orange peels is used in household chemicals, food flavorings, and other fragrance products. Orange blossoms can be used for food and tea flavorings. Orange peels are employed by some gardeners as a slug repellent. The remains from squeezing out the juice can also be used as dehydrated livestock feed.

Key Concerns

Disease and weather are of the upmost importance to orange juice producers and the following are the key areas of focus:

Hurricanes: Since Florida is the source of around 90% of orange juice in the United States, hurricanes heading towards the peninsula can cause significant interest. In the 1960s Hurricane Donna cut across Florida causing a loss of anywhere between 35 to 50% of the orange crop. In 2004, three hurricanes whipped across the state causing an estimated 30% destruction of the orange crop. Winds from hurricanes can cause direct tree damage as well as spreading disease.

Frost: Oranges are sensitive to cold temperatures and frost or freezing can devastate a crop overnight. Freezing temperatures have threatened groves and caused major crop losses since well before the 20th century. Due to the winter freeze of 1989, most growers have moved further south in Florida. The chill inspired exodus means most of Florida’s growers are in the southern region of the state. Usually, when a freeze is forecast, growers will spray fruit with a protective coat of ice to insulate against extensive damage.

Citrus Canker: This bacterial disease causes lesions on leaves, stem, and fruit and can cause oranges to drop early. Most countries in which infection has been detected are unable to export fruit to other countries and eradication programs have been implemented including destroying and quarantining infected trees. Despite a few times when the US has declared citrus canker eradicated, it has persisted and its spread is likely exacerbated by the winds associated with hurricanes. Canker has also caused significant losses of crop and revenue in Brazil.

Citrus Greening: Unlike canker, this bacterial disease can kill trees and greatly reduce production. Greening was confirmed in US groves in 2005 and has rapidly spread across southern Florida. The disease is primarily spread by two psyllid insects which feed on trees and carry the disease from infected to healthy trees. Symptoms include poor flowering, small blotchy leaves, and small and misshapen fruit with a bitter or sour taste. Citrus greening is also established in Brazil.

Besides these fundamental concerns, other factors can impact the price of orange juice. Consumer demand can be important to watch and, since juice is frozen and stored, the Cold Storage report from the USDA is also worth watching.